Hawaiʻi Island was placed under a tropical-storm warning Thursday as Nolo strengthened to 70 mph, a consequential escalation from the hurricane watch and precautionary closures announced earlier in the day. Maui County, including Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe, was placed under a tropical-storm watch, while the hurricane watch for Hawaiʻi County remained in effect, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory and matching local reporting.

The change means tropical-storm conditions are expected on Hawaiʻi Island within 36 hours, rather than merely possible, while such conditions are possible across Maui County within 48 hours. The NHC said at 11 a.m. Hawaiʻi time that Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point and moving north at only 2 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 90 miles from the center. The storm was just 4 mph below hurricane strength and was forecast to become a hurricane Thursday night, then a major hurricane by the weekend.

Warning expands the immediate threat

The warning does not mean a direct landfall is certain. Forecasters said most guidance still carried Nolo near or south of Hawaiʻi Island, followed by a sharp westward turn Saturday. But the NHC’s forecast discussion said the track remained uncertain and some ensemble members still crossed the island. A closer approach would raise the risk of damaging winds, especially on exposed ridges, at higher elevations and in areas downwind of steep terrain. The storm’s slow motion also increases the amount of time moisture can be directed over the islands.

The wind upgrade adds urgency to a threat that was already dominated by rainfall. Forecasters continued to project 15 to 20 inches across Hawaiʻi Island, with isolated totals as high as 35 inches, and 5 to 10 inches on Maui with isolated totals up to 20 inches. The state emergency agency warned that catastrophic flooding and life-threatening landslides were possible on Hawaiʻi Island, particularly in steep terrain, and that Maui also faced dangerous landslide conditions. The NHC and local forecasters also projected a 1-to-3-foot storm surge somewhere along Hawaiʻi County’s coast if peak surge coincides with high tide, along with large, damaging waves.

The intensifying storm compounds the operational disruptions detailed in The American Quorum’s morning report. Public schools and state and county offices across Hawaiʻi Island and Maui County are scheduled to close Friday; Hawaiʻi County also suspended non-emergency services Thursday. Essential emergency functions remain in operation. The governor has requested a pre-landfall federal emergency declaration for all four counties, seeking federal support for search and rescue, emergency power, debris clearance, communications and transportation, according to a closure notice.

Preparations move from precaution to deadline

Authorities are urging residents to finish securing outdoor objects, charge communications devices, stock necessary food, water and medication, and identify safe shelter before conditions deteriorate. Hawaiʻi Emergency Management advised people in southeast Hawaiʻi Island to consider moving to safer shelter and told residents statewide to prepare for power outages. Officials have not announced a broad mandatory evacuation, so residents should distinguish official county alerts from rumors and follow location-specific instructions.

Closures were continuing to spread even before the warning was issued. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park was set to close fully by 5 p.m. Thursday, and state parks, forest reserves, hiking trails, wildlife sanctuaries and hunting areas were closing on Hawaiʻi Island and across Maui and Molokaʻi. An updated closure list also included canceled public meetings and community events. Those decisions are intended to keep roads clear for emergency crews and reduce travel during the period of greatest flood risk.

Nolo’s next several hours will determine whether the wind threat rises again. Forecasters described an improving inner core and conditions favorable for rapid intensification: very warm water, abundant moisture and weakening wind shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission was expected to sample the storm Thursday afternoon, which could produce a more precise estimate of its strength and structure. The warning could be upgraded or expanded if aircraft data or a northward track shift increases the expected wind risk.

For now, the most consequential change is that damaging weather is no longer only a forecast possibility for Hawaiʻi Island. A warning is an instruction to complete preparations, even as the precise track remains unsettled. Residents should use official county alerts for evacuation or shelter instructions and avoid flooded roads, coastal exposure and nonessential travel as rain bands arrive.