Texas’s preliminary payroll estimate declined by 11,100 jobs in September, even as its gain over the preceding year remained the largest among states, according to federal figures released Tuesday, October 20. The different comparisons describe a labor market with more jobs than a year earlier but a slightly lower estimated payroll count than in August.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll table puts seasonally adjusted Texas nonfarm employment at 14,461,300 in September, compared with 14,472,400 in August and 14,307,000 in September 2025. The annual increase was 154,300 jobs, or 1.1 percent. These are estimates of jobs, not a count of distinct people gaining employment.

The monthly decline needs a qualification: BLS classified Texas payroll employment as essentially unchanged under its statistical tests. Its September summary identified significant monthly increases in New Jersey and South Carolina and a decrease in Wisconsin. Texas’s numerical dip was not among those significant changes. The annual Texas increase, however, was statistically significant.

Texas led in the number of jobs added over the year, not in the percentage growth rate. BLS listed South Carolina, Louisiana and Utah as the states with the largest percentage increases. A larger job total and a faster growth rate are different rankings; neither alone describes every local industry or a particular worker’s prospects.

Payrolls and the labor force measure different things

The Texas Workforce Commission’s October announcement highlighted a rounded 15,800-person monthly increase in the civilian labor force. That does not mean Texas added 15,800 payroll jobs. The federal household table places the September labor force at 15,948,397, up from 15,932,634 in August. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in both months.

Under the agency’s technical note, the labor force includes employed people and unemployed people actively seeking work, with specified exceptions for people awaiting recall. Those estimates concern residents. Payroll statistics instead concern jobs at establishments and count someone appearing on two payrolls on each payroll. The two series therefore cannot be substituted for one another.

Industry estimates also moved in different directions. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 4,700 between August and September, while construction declined by 2,400. Professional and business services rose by 1,600. Those numerical changes are not presented here as independently established, statistically significant industry trends.

Preliminary figures, not a hiring forecast

BLS explains that these estimates depend on surveys, administrative records and modeling and can change as more information arrives. Payroll estimates are benchmarked against more complete employment records, while seasonal adjustment accounts for recurring patterns. A small monthly movement should not be treated as a definitive turning point or proof that a particular policy caused hiring or job losses.

The commission and BLS produce employment estimates through federal-state cooperation. Their matching headline figures are not two independent measurements of the economy. This report describes the published statistical records; it does not independently audit employers, establish why the monthly estimate changed or forecast an individual’s employment prospects.

The next federal state-employment release, covering October, is scheduled for November 20 at 10 a.m. Eastern, or 9 a.m. Central. Readers comparing successive releases should check the reference month, seasonal-adjustment label and revised earlier figures, rather than combining a workforce headline with a payroll total.

Illustration: AI-generated conceptual artwork, not an actual Texas workplace, worker, payroll record or data chart.

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