Alaska’s four-way race for governor has entered its final month with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading a statewide poll, three Republicans competing for many of the same voters and nearly one-fifth of respondents still undecided.
The official general-election field pairs Kreiss-Tomkins with Gara Alsworth; Bernadette Wilson with Michael Shower; Dave Bronson with Josh Church; and Treg Taylor with Candi English. The Alaska Division of Elections candidate list confirms the four tickets that advanced to the Nov. 3 ballot after the state’s open primary and subsequent withdrawals.
Alaskans who still need to register or update their registration face a Sunday, Oct. 4 deadline. The Division of Elections says its offices are open Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., providing an in-person option on the final full business day before the cutoff.
That lineup makes second and third choices unusually important. Under the state’s ranked-choice rules, voters may rank as many or as few candidates as they wish. If no ticket receives a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest finisher is eliminated and ballots that rank another active candidate transfer until one ticket reaches 50% plus one.
A bipartisan AARP survey of 800 likely voters, conducted Sept. 8-11, put Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% on the initial ballot and showed him defeating Wilson 55% to 45% after simulated transfers. But the poll is not a forecast: 18% of respondents did not choose a first preference, and the final-round calculation excludes voters whose rankings do not continue to either finalist.
Alaska Public Media reported that the undecided group leaned substantially Republican and that pollsters cautioned the apparent 10-point final-round advantage could narrow as those voters make choices. Wilson has urged Bronson and Taylor to leave the race, while both have remained on the ballot and encouraged voters to rank Republican tickets.
The Republican field was unsettled after the primary. Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom initially declined to certify Taylor over a financial-disclosure issue, then reversed course after a Department of Law review found potential discrepancies across numerous filings. Her Sept. 4 certification announcement said the review was preliminary and did not establish that any candidate violated state law.
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative from Sitka, finished first in the open primary before fellow Democrat Tom Begich withdrew. Recent national attention has focused on whether a Democrat can win a state Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. A Guardian report published Friday linked the competitive race to dissatisfaction with outgoing Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, the cost of living, education funding and debate over the Permanent Fund dividend.
Those issues will matter, but the mechanics of the ballot could be decisive. A first-choice lead gives Kreiss-Tomkins an advantage; it does not guarantee victory. Republican voters’ willingness to rank multiple GOP candidates—and the preferences of the large undecided bloc—will determine whether the three-way split persists through the transfer rounds or consolidates behind one challenger.
