President Biden said Friday that the United States has reason to believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and that an attack could come within days, escalating Washington’s public warning campaign while insisting diplomacy remains possible until military action begins.

“As of this moment, I’m convinced he’s made the decision,” Biden said when asked whether Putin had decided to invade. In remarks from the Roosevelt Room, the president said U.S. officials believe Russian forces intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week and could target Kyiv, a city of roughly 2.8 million people.

The statement is the administration’s most definitive public assessment yet of Putin’s intentions. It does not mean an attack is inevitable: Biden said Russia can still choose diplomacy. But it signals that U.S. intelligence now views the military buildup around Ukraine not simply as coercive pressure but as preparation for a potentially imminent offensive.

Washington is making intelligence public

The Biden administration has taken the unusual step of repeatedly describing Russian military plans and alleged preparations in public. Officials say the purpose is to deny Moscow the ability to manufacture a pretext for war and to ensure that allies and the public understand the basis for U.S. warnings.

CBS News reported Friday that Biden said the United States believes Russian forces are planning to attack in the coming days, even as he emphasized that diplomacy remains available. The administration has warned of possible cyber operations, disinformation and staged incidents that could be used to justify military action.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken carried the same message to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday. In remarks to the council, Blinken described a possible sequence in which Russia could create a false justification, launch attacks across Ukraine and move toward Kyiv. He said the purpose of publicly outlining the scenario was not to predict war with certainty but to make deception more difficult.

U.S. forces are moving to reassure NATO allies

The United States has simultaneously strengthened its military posture in Europe without sending combat forces into Ukraine. The Defense Department said in a February 12 deployment update that another 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division were moving to Europe, while 160 Florida National Guard troops training Ukrainian forces were being repositioned out of Ukraine.

Those troops join earlier deployments to Poland, Germany and Romania. Pentagon officials say the mission is to reassure NATO allies, deter aggression against alliance territory and provide commanders with flexible forces for contingencies. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and Biden has repeatedly said U.S. troops will not fight Russia inside Ukraine, but Washington has pledged to defend every inch of allied territory.

The distinction is central to the administration’s strategy: military support and weapons for Ukraine, stronger forces on NATO’s eastern flank, severe economic consequences for Russia if it invades, but no direct U.S.-Russia war over Ukrainian territory.

Diplomacy continues alongside evacuation measures

Despite the increasingly stark intelligence assessment, the administration continues talking with allies and keeping channels open to Moscow. Biden joined a Friday call with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, the European Union and NATO. A readout said the group reviewed diplomatic efforts and preparations to impose swift, coordinated economic costs if Russia undertakes further aggression.

The State Department has also reduced its presence in Ukraine and shifted core embassy functions away from Kyiv. RFE/RL reported Monday that operations were being moved temporarily to Lviv in western Ukraine as the United States urged American citizens to leave the country. The decision reflects concern that the security environment could deteriorate too rapidly for a conventional government-assisted evacuation.

Those precautions do not foreclose diplomacy. Blinken is in Europe meeting allies and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while U.S. officials continue to say they are prepared to discuss arms control, military transparency and other security issues if Russia de-escalates.

The next decision rests largely with Moscow

The immediate uncertainty is whether Russia’s enormous force deployment is the final stage before an attack or leverage designed to extract political concessions. The United States estimates that Russia has assembled a substantial share of its ground combat power around Ukraine, including forces in Belarus and occupied Crimea, as well as naval and air assets capable of supporting a major operation.

Biden’s public conclusion that Putin has made a decision raises the stakes for every subsequent diplomatic move. If Russian troops pull back, Washington will claim that allied unity and public exposure of Moscow’s plans helped deter an attack. If they move forward, the administration has already laid out its intended response: sanctions, greater NATO deployments and continued support for Ukraine.

For Americans, the crisis carries direct consequences even without U.S. combat in Ukraine. A war could disrupt European security, energy markets and financial conditions while forcing the United States to sustain a larger military presence on NATO’s eastern flank. It would also confront Washington with a test of whether economic pressure and alliance coordination can impose meaningful costs on a nuclear-armed adversary without escalating into direct conflict.

As of Saturday, the United States is telling the world that time is short but not exhausted. Biden’s message is deliberately dual-track: Washington believes Putin has chosen invasion, yet it will continue pursuing diplomacy until Russian forces actually cross the line.