Idaho employment is projected to grow by more than 13% from 2024 through 2034, a state forecast that points to substantially faster expansion than the national rate while giving workers, schools and employers a new benchmark for long-term planning.
The Idaho Department of Labor released the comparison September 1, saying its 10-year projection exceeds 13% while the corresponding U.S. workforce projection was 3.1%. Department economist Seth Harrington said industry and occupation projections can help job seekers and employers identify in-demand skills and the education those jobs will require.
The headline figure is a forecast, not a guarantee. Projections are most useful for comparing the expected direction and relative scale of change, especially when employers, community colleges and workforce agencies decide where to invest. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics makes the same caution explicit in its newer 2025–2035 national outlook: precise estimates cannot capture all the uncertainty in a decade-long labor market forecast.
The federal outlook, released August 27, uses a different period and therefore is not directly interchangeable with Idaho’s comparison. BLS projects total U.S. employment will rise 3.5% between 2025 and 2035, adding 5.9 million jobs. It expects private health care and social assistance to add more than 2.2 million jobs and account for about 37% of new employment. Professional, scientific and technical services are projected to grow 8.6%, while office and administrative support occupations are projected to decline 4% as automation changes work.
For Idaho, the practical issue is whether the labor supply, training system and housing capacity can keep pace with the demand implied by a rate above 13%. A sustained expansion of that size would require more than filling current vacancies: schools and training providers would need to align programs with future occupations, while employers would face continued pressure to recruit and retain workers. Those are planning implications, not findings that every industry or county will grow equally.
Recent data also show why the long-term outlook should be read alongside current conditions. In its July labor-market report, the Idaho Department of Labor put the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 3.6%, down from 3.7% in June. Nonfarm payrolls added 1,200 jobs during the month, reaching 886,800.
Yet the same report showed a softer labor supply. Idaho’s labor force fell by 1,523 people in July to 998,870, and the participation rate slipped 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. Compared with July 2025, the labor force was down 8,416 people, even as nonfarm jobs were up 4,200. That combination—continued job growth alongside a smaller labor force—suggests that worker availability could be as consequential as job creation if the decade forecast is realized.
Idaho’s next monthly snapshot, covering August, is scheduled for release September 18. It will not validate or overturn a 10-year projection, but it will provide the latest evidence on whether employment, participation and payroll trends are moving in the same direction as the longer-term outlook.
