Arizona’s latest employment report shows a substantial September payroll gain before seasonal adjustment, but almost no underlying monthly change after that adjustment. The Office of Economic Opportunity’s Oct. 15 release reports 23,700 additional nonfarm jobs on an unadjusted basis and a decline of 300 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The state’s adjusted unemployment rate held at 4.9%, a figure also reported by AZBEX.
Those figures are not contradictory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal-adjustment explanation describes a process designed to remove predictable recurring influences, including weather, holidays and school schedules. An unadjusted increase counts the jobs added as the calendar advances; an adjusted series helps show whether employment changed beyond the usual seasonal pattern. September’s large raw gain should not therefore be read as an equally large acceleration in the state’s labor market.
Government accounts for most of the raw gain
The monthly sector figures illustrate that distinction. AZBEX reports government employment rose by 22,200, while private employment added just 1,500 jobs. Within the private sector, educational services gained 5,400 and trade, transportation and utilities added 2,000. Gila Valley Central also reports those government and industry figures from the state release. They are unadjusted changes, not proof that underlying hiring accelerated by the same amounts.
Construction moved in the opposite direction over the month. AZBEX’s statewide analysis reports a decline of 1,900 jobs, to 228,200, while construction employment remained 5,800 above September 2025. That combination matters: a monthly fall and a year-over-year gain can coexist. The figures do not establish that every construction employer is cutting staff, or explain what happened at any particular project.
A steady rate does not describe every worker
Arizona’s report also shows its seasonally adjusted labor force declined by 10,704 people from August. The unemployment rate was unchanged from August but above September 2025’s 4.4%. Nationally, the September report from BLS puts unemployment at 4.2%. Arizona’s rate was therefore 0.7 percentage point higher, although that comparison alone does not explain the difference.
BLS distinguishes labor-force status measured through its household survey from payroll employment measured through its establishment survey. A payroll-job count and an unemployment rate answer different questions; neither is a direct measure of an individual’s prospects of finding work. The national release describes both employment and unemployment as changing little in September, providing context rather than a cause for Arizona’s figures.
Local experience also varies. Gila Valley Central reports September jobless rates of 4.3% in Graham County and 3.1% in Greenlee County, matching the state’s county table. Those local figures are not seasonally adjusted and should not be treated as directly interchangeable with Arizona’s adjusted headline rate. For employers and job seekers, the relevant industry, location and comparison period matter alongside the statewide total.
