U.S. life expectancy at birth increased by 1.1 years in 2022, rising from 76.4 to 77.5 years as mortality from COVID-19 fell sharply, according to new provisional estimates released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The improvement is substantial, but it restores less than half of the 2.4 years of life expectancy lost between 2019 and 2021.

The same federal release carries a less encouraging signal: provisional suicides rose to 49,449 in 2022, the highest annual count recorded in the United States. Taken together, the two reports show a mortality picture moving away from the acute pandemic shock while continuing to reflect serious chronic and behavioral-health pressures.

COVID decline accounts for most of the rebound

The National Center for Health Statistics’ provisional life-expectancy report estimates that overall life expectancy increased from 76.4 years in 2021 to 77.5 in 2022. Male life expectancy rose 1.3 years to 74.8, while female life expectancy rose 0.9 year to 80.2. The gap between women and men narrowed from 5.8 years to 5.4 years.

The recovery was broad across the racial and ethnic populations included in the report. American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic life expectancy increased 2.3 years, from 65.6 to 67.9. Hispanic life expectancy rose 2.2 years to 80.0, Black non-Hispanic life expectancy rose 1.6 years to 72.8, Asian non-Hispanic life expectancy rose 1.0 year to 84.5, and White non-Hispanic life expectancy increased 0.8 year to 77.5.

The mechanism behind the national increase is unusually concentrated. NCHS calculated that declines in COVID-19 mortality accounted for about 84.2% of the positive contribution to the 1.1-year improvement. Lower mortality from heart disease, unintentional injuries, cancer and homicide also contributed. The CDC’s Nov. 29 summary emphasized that the rebound does not erase the pandemic-era decline.

Earlier provisional mortality data had already shown the scale of that shift. A May MMWR analysis estimated that COVID-19 was an underlying or contributing cause in about 244,986 deaths during 2022, a 47% decrease from 2021. The overall age-adjusted death rate also declined, although the provisional methods and later life-table analysis use somewhat different datasets and measures.

The country has not returned to its pre-pandemic trajectory

The rebound should be understood against the depth of the preceding decline. Final 2021 data showed life expectancy of 76.4 years, down from 77.0 in 2020. A December 2022 NCHS report documented the second consecutive annual decline and the heavy contribution of COVID-19 deaths to the deterioration.

The new estimate of 77.5 years is therefore an important reversal, but it remains below the 78.8-year level reported for 2019 before the pandemic. The provisional report also notes that gains were partially offset by increased mortality from influenza and pneumonia, perinatal conditions, kidney disease, nutritional deficiencies and congenital malformations.

That distinction matters for health policy. A rising national life-expectancy number can reflect a large improvement in one cause of death without indicating that all underlying risks are improving. In 2022, the fading mortality burden of the pandemic had an outsized effect on the aggregate measure.

Suicide moves in the opposite direction

The companion NCHS suicide report estimates 49,449 deaths by suicide in 2022, up 2.6% from 48,183 in 2021. The provisional age-adjusted rate rose from 14.1 to 14.3 deaths per 100,000, the highest rate since 1941, according to CDC.

The increase was not uniform. Male suicides rose 2.3% to 39,255 and female suicides rose 3.8% to 10,194. Rates increased among several older age groups, while the number of suicide deaths among people ages 10 to 24 declined. CDC had published an earlier provisional update in August showing the same overall count and highlighting meaningful differences across age and racial or ethnic groups.

The suicide findings do not offset the national life-expectancy gain mathematically; COVID mortality remained far larger and its decline was the dominant driver. But the rise in suicide demonstrates why aggregate mortality measures need to be disaggregated. The United States can simultaneously recover years of life lost during the pandemic and experience worsening outcomes in specific areas of behavioral health.

Provisional data offer direction, not finality

Both reports rely on provisional death-certificate data. NCHS says the life-expectancy estimates use more than 99% of 2022 death records processed by early July 2023, but records can still be revised. Deaths requiring investigation, including some injuries and overdoses, may also be undercounted temporarily. Final mortality statistics will provide the definitive 2022 values after remaining records are completed and coded.

That caution does not weaken the central signal. The change from 2021 to 2022 is large enough to show a clear improvement in overall mortality conditions, led overwhelmingly by fewer deaths from COVID-19. It also shows that the United States has not yet restored the years of life expectancy lost since 2019.

The latest data therefore describe a transition rather than a return to normal. The pandemic’s direct effect on mortality is receding, life expectancy is moving upward again, and several demographic groups posted sizeable gains. At the same time, record suicide counts and persistent gaps across populations underscore that the health consequences now facing the country extend well beyond a single disease.