Los Angeles recorded 4,171 on-location shoot days in the third quarter of 2026, a 4.8% decline from a year earlier even as California-subsidized projects supplied 40.3% of the region’s scripted filming. The new FilmLA report, released October 21, offers the clearest evidence yet that the state’s enlarged production incentive is changing which projects stay in Los Angeles but has not reversed the industry’s broader contraction.

The quarterly total was also about 11.5% below the second quarter and nearly 29% under the five-year average, according to an independent Times analysis. Those comparisons matter because the headline decline is not simply a weak reading against an unusually strong 2025. Local production remains structurally smaller than it was before studios reduced spending, consolidated operations and dispersed more work to other states and countries.

The credit is capturing a larger share

California more than doubled annual funding for its Film and Television Tax Credit Program from $330 million to $750 million when Program 4.0 began in July 2025. The state also made credits refundable, broadened eligibility and raised the base incentive for many projects. The official program guide divides the annual allocation among television, relocating series, independent films and larger studio features.

The third-quarter figures show the program gaining traction. Incentivized film and television projects logged 505 on-location shoot days, more than double the 242 days recorded a year earlier. Their 40.3% share of scripted location work was nearly twice the prior-year proportion. That does not mean subsidized productions represented 40% of all filming: FilmLA’s scripted measure covers features and television, while commercials, student projects, documentaries, online content and other categories are counted separately.

Television comedy supplied the strongest evidence of a direct response. The category rose to 192 shoot days from 79, and tax-credit recipients generated 119 of those days, up from 15 a year earlier. Incentivized projects accounted for 62% of comedy location work and 49.4% of television drama days. Industry reporting from TheWrap likewise found the enlarged credit was cushioning, rather than ending, the downturn.

Gains remain uneven across production

Feature films logged 533 shoot days, 2.1% more than a year earlier and 20.3% above the second quarter. Incentive recipients provided 24.2% of that work, including Netflix’s planned 13 Going on 30 project and Warner Bros.’ Cut Off. Yet feature activity remained 19.3% below the five-year average, illustrating how a quarterly improvement can coexist with a diminished production base.

Television produced 1,400 shoot days overall, down 2.8% from the third quarter of 2025 and roughly 53% below the five-year average. Drama fell 9.4% to 494 days, while reality television declined 2.9% to 630. Only nine pilot shoot days were recorded, a 52.6% annual drop. The comedy rebound offset much of the television decline but did not spread across the rest of the category.

Commercials, which do not qualify for the state incentive, fell 15.9% to 562 days. FilmLA’s broad “other” category declined 4.2% to 1,676 days, although online production rose 16.3% to 556. That growth points toward smaller vertical-video and micro-drama productions, but the data do not establish that those projects replace the budgets, payrolls or duration of traditional film and television work.

Award announcements are not completed spending

California says the first fiscal year of the expanded program awarded 170 projects expected to generate $6.6 billion in direct in-state production spending, $2.58 billion in qualified wages and almost 35,000 cast and crew jobs. Those figures in the state’s July summary are projections attached to approved projects, not audited results from completed productions.

That timing helps explain the apparent contradiction in the latest quarter. Projects receive allocations before filming begins, and some awards may take months to show up in permit data. FilmLA said 214 projects had received expanded-program awards since July 2025, while 35 films selected in an October round were expected to produce 1,049 shooting days statewide. Recipients generally have 180 days to begin production, so a portion of the state’s approved pipeline remains outside the third-quarter totals.

The report measures only part of Hollywood

FilmLA’s dataset is an important but incomplete measure. A shoot day represents one crew’s permission to film at one or more defined locations during a 24-hour period in jurisdictions served by FilmLA. It excludes certified soundstages and filming in other California jurisdictions. Sitcoms and other stage-heavy productions can therefore generate substantial employment without appearing fully in the location count.

The measure also does not reveal spending per day, crew size, wages or whether a job is continuous. A large studio feature and a small digital production can each add one shoot day even though their economic footprints differ sharply. The numbers are best read as evidence about the volume and mix of permitted location activity, not a comprehensive accounting of entertainment employment or statewide production.

What the next quarters will test

The program is demonstrably affecting some location choices. The CBS drama Tracker moved its fourth season from British Columbia to Los Angeles after receiving a credit, and FilmLA identified multiple subsidized comedies and dramas working locally. California also strengthened the system in September by improving refundability and creating a separate post-production credit, according to an official state release.

The unresolved question is scale. If approved projects move into production as scheduled, tax-credit work should account for more shoot days in coming quarters. But the third-quarter report shows that targeted incentives can succeed within eligible categories while the overall market still shrinks because fewer shows are ordered, budgets remain constrained and unsponsored work continues to leave or disappear.

The evidence therefore supports a narrow conclusion: California’s expanded credit is winning identifiable productions and sustaining a larger share of the scripted work that remains. It does not yet show a recovery in Los Angeles production as a whole. The next test will be whether the approved pipeline raises total shoot days, rather than merely increasing the subsidized share of a smaller market.